As the ‘old-saying’ goes, “Do you want the truth, follow the money.” The same can be said for politics, although the truth is sometimes a bit murkier. In politics, if you want the truth, you must analyze and then figure out “who benefits, and what are those benefits” to any political decision.
There is no question whether Iowa’s Governor Kim Reynolds is popular in this “First in the Nation” flyover state. First ordained to be Governor by the long-serving gubernatorial fixture Terry Branstad, Reynolds is now midway through her second term as the leader of this conservative yet multidimensional purple State. Iowa trends (depending on conditions and the year) back and forth politically between conservative yet slightly liberal in some aspects. The best description would be, if it’s economic, Iowa is to the right of conservative. If the subject is social, they (meaning the residents) tend to drift more socially accepting. In other words, the rainbow flag for the LGTBQ community flies proudly across most of Des Moines, Iowa City, and Council Bluffs with little to no reaction from most of the hearty residents of this corn belt state.
However, this past weekend, Governor Reynolds made a significant adjustment to the office of Governor. For the first time, this “First in the Nation” (for the 2024 Presidential election), the Governor has endorsed a Presidential candidate. Traditionally, the Governor of Iowa has never endorsed a Presidential candidate as the State wanted the Caucuses to be pure, and the people would decide who this cross-section of American society favored. Iowa has a bit of everything, and this is what makes the State a good barometer for the nation. Iowa has social liberals, rural conservative farming, Union manufacturing, pro-life, pro-choice, religion, activists of all sorts, hi-tech, and the list goes on.
Forget the news interviews, the spin, and the rumors and ask yourself, “Why would Kim Reynolds endorse Ron DeSantis to be President of these United States?”
She didn’t endorse before the Caucuses in 2016 or 2020; I think it is fair to ask, “Why is she endorsing this time?”
The answer lies in “How does this endorsement benefit Governor Reynolds personally?”
The fact is, a Kim Reynolds endorsement of this magnitude (along with the explanations as to ‘why’) carries a ton of weight come caucus time in the Hawkeye State. Reynolds is highly respected in Iowa and even liked amongst many Democrats (less the abortion bill signed), but nonetheless, other than that topic, she is liked across party lines. If her endorsement means that DeSantis wins Iowa, along with that win comes a trainload of other endorsements and much-needed cash. Millions in donations will be dumped on the Florida Governor, and his ability to defeat Trump now becomes a plausible reality.
Reynolds apparently is gambling on a couple of things to happen.
- Trump’s legal woes with the Florida (Mar-A-Lago) document trial and the January 6th trial take him out of the race from “felony” convictions. Trump is already being stripped of ballot access in California and other states. If you live in Barstow, California, Donald Trump’s name won’t even be on the ballot even if he is the GOP Nominee.
- Ron DeSantis wins the GOP nomination because he is the second choice for many Trump supporters.
This is what Kim Reynolds is banking on in the hopes that DeSantis rewards her endorsement with a VEEP nomination if he can pull off the big win at the GOP Convention next summer. Make no mistake, this sweet little grandmotherly type is a calculating political animal who is very adept at campaigning and winning.
The $64 question now becomes, can Ron DeSantis actually win the nomination? Can Donald Trump win the nomination?
In my ‘never to be humble’ opinion, NEITHER CAN WIN THE NOMINATION and here’s why!
- Former President Trump is being nuked in the legal department. Say what you want, but America is not going to vote for or nominate someone with felony convictions on their record. Trump is already losing support, as evidenced by Robert Kennedy Jr.’s rapid rise in popularity across the board. Many Trump supporters are gravitating toward the Kennedy camp.
- Ron DeSantis’s positions on abortion, education (fighting with Disney), his being assaulted by the Trump PACs, and his campaign trail demeanor (as being angry all the time) will not allow him to win the nomination. The must-win states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, the West Coast, and the Northeast Seaboard are all out of play for DeSantis. These are states that are must-win for a candidate to accumulate the needed number of delegates to win the nomination.
- So “who” wins if Trump is taken out and DeSantis hard charging right-wing rhetoric is not tempered, and he is taken down also? Remember, Northern Republicans and West Coast Republicans are not the same as South Carolina, Florida, and Alabama Republicans. The up-north GOP is fiscally conservative but a lot more socially liberal. They are not ones to vote for a candidate who is anti-LGTBQ and solely pro-life. They are more of live and let-live voters when it comes to personal choices.
Enter Nikki Haley! She is fiscally conservative, has a record of job growth, balancing the budget, and while being pro-life, she adds caveats to it, which makes her “not so hard-lined” on the subject of abortion. She is a woman, which makes her less toxic when it comes to gay rights and that venue of contention.
If Haley can come in the top three in Iowa, then the top three in South Carolina and New Hampshire, she will do very well on Super Tuesday with the Northern States. Now, her campaign war chest will balloon, and it will be off to the races.
While her numbers have not exploded, remember, neither have DeSantis’s done well either. Both are tied in terms of popularity so far. Haley’s campaign is doing well in Iowa, and she is experiencing slow, steady growth. She is not a Roman candle but a methodical, calculated growth in terms of support and popularity.
My prediction is: Look for Ambassador Nikki Haley to be your next Republican nominee for President.
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UPDATE TO THE 2024 CAMPAIGNS
The Republicans worst nightmare transpired after this article had been completed. Kentucky fell to the Democrats for Governor after Donald Trump had endorsed the GOP candidate. Virginia lost the Senate races after Virginia’s Governor Youngkin had poured his soul into that effort. All in all, and across the board, the GOP got walloped on Tuesday night at all levels.
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