President Trump’s “America First Agenda” success largely depends on a cooperative Republican-led House of Representatives and a Republican-held Senate. The $64 question now becomes, can the GOP hold the House this November? The Dem’s, of course, are touting that they are going to win back the House in a landslide. The GOP, strangely enough, are a bit more pragmatic over their chances. Watching the “pundits and prognosticators” on the main-stream news channels have the Dem’s doing well, while on Fox, they (even the GOP) seem to be about evenly split as to whether the Republicans hold the House and Senate.
This map is the current “Lay of the Land” if you will:
As of this publishing, we have 44 Republican House members who are either retiring, being appointed to higher office (such as Oklahoma’s Jim Bridenstine who is taking over NASA) or campaigning for higher office. Tennessee Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn is now running for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Senator Bob Corker.
There is a big difference in being a “realist” and having a “positive” attitude. Just because I might not feel as bright and chipper about a situation as you might be, doesn’t mean that I am negative. It says that I am looking at a situation without bias blinders on and am analyzing the situation in reality terms.
Here is the reality from data that is currently in and this data, there is absolutely no way to dispute it as it has been recorded. In nearly every special election held so far in the past two-years, the Republican who was endorsed by President Trump has lost. This is a fact! This is not bashing the President, nor am I being a Trump detractor, I am merely looking at facts. For whatever reason, the President seems to have very weak coattails when it comes to endorsing.
The Trump supporters will point to a victory several weeks ago by a Trump-endorsed candidate in South Carolina. The fact is, Kate Arrington was endorsed by the President, however, it wasn’t until 2-hours before the polls closed, and it was via Twitter. Let’s be real here Patriot’s, an endorsement via Twitter and a couple of hours before the polls close doesn’t make a victory. Arrington won that primary on her own. Granted her opponent was the disgraced former Governor who had run off with his mistress to South America or someplace a couple of years back. That scandal rocked the Gamecock State for months.
Here is the problem:
The bulk of those red seats are in the upper-Midwest and Eastcoast. Until President Trump came along, states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. had been blue for the most part. If President Trump has no coattails (as evidenced in his recent loss in Pennsylvania), then this is going to make winning those back red, almost impossible. For instance, New Jersey is a heavily Democrat stronghold, and we are losing 4-House Members from Jersey. Wisconsin’s 1st District is currently the home to Speaker Paul Ryan. Ryan is leaving a huge vacuum in this state. The district is heavily Union as it is and was the home to many auto manufacturing factories. The area has lost many of those jobs, and the only reason Ryan retained this seat is that he was the Speaker and had a massive war chest to knock off anyone who might challenge him. Not anymore! Now the field is level, and with the majority of registered voters being Democrat, the GOP will most likely lose this seat.
Michigan, for instance, has the 11th District and this seat is currently held by Congressman Dave Trott. This race to replace to Trott is all but a blood-bath for the Republicans. Four years ago, Trott won this seat by donating $15M to the Michigan Republican Party, then dumping $3M of his own cash into this race. He outspent then Congressman Kerry Bentivolio by a margin of some 10-1 to win the primary. Trott has been a far less than stellar Congressman. This time around Bentivolio has almost zero cash and a lineup of 5 other challengers. None of the other challengers are respected or liked. In fact, one of them is a State Senator who gave his district a 10 cent a gallon gasoline tax when the region voted by 80% that they disapproved of the tax hike. This is another seat that will most likely be lost to the Democrats in November.
Historically speaking: Incumbents win re-election 97% of the time. This is a historical fact dating back decades. The Democrats only need 23-seats to win back the House. The Republicans no longer hold the advantage of incumbency to retain an edge over the Democrats. Also, historically speaking, the off year of the sitting party in the White House usually goes to the opposing party. In this case, the Democrats (if history repeats itself) are but guaranteed to pick up seats. Add to the fact that we have 44 stepping aside and it makes it all the easier for them to do so.
AS PROMISED, MY FIRST ENDORSEMENT OF THE MID-TERM:
From the above information, I can clearly see how this might very well come down to Oregon’s 5th District. You can go through the above map and quickly pick 20-22 seats which could very well be lost. If that is the case, then the Oregon 5th becomes all the more critical. While the 5th District of Oregon resides in a Blue State, the district is currently rated by Cook’s PVI index as a tossup 0. This means that the Democrats do not have an advantage, nor do the Republicans.
Mark Callahan is a reliable conservative who is very well received and liked in the District. He is pro-life, pro-Second Amendment, a budget hawk, believes in smaller government. Mark is also compassionate in many areas. He does want to listen to all points of view, unlike many politicians. Mark’s door will always beO open to all constituents of the 5th District, not just his own party. Mark is also an “America First Agenda” supporter and is firm on supporting the President when it comes to national security.
Patriots; If we are to retain the House and you don’t want Nancy Pelosi or Maxine Waters or something akin to those two dingbats running our House, then you had better step up and support Mark Callahan. He won his primary and is up against a Democrat (Nancy Pelosi backing) named Kurt Schrader. This guy never once voted against Pelosi when she was Speaker. Mark can win this seat, but he needs your help. Click Here and give your support. Let’s work together to keep the House in order to keep the President’s agenda on track!