For those of us who live and die by the political winds, this primary cycle has been nothing short of tumultuous for our emotions. In the past six months, we have had more ups and downs than the infamous roller-coaster “Cyclone”.
Over the past months, friends have been made (politically like-minded) and friends have been lost over this high-octane campaign cycle. Parents have been pitted against their adult children who wanted the government they grew up with to remain the same while the kids wanted to have a peaceful revolution with Bernie Sanders. Brothers have fought with brothers over Cruz versus Donald and Americans patriotism has even been questioned based upon the candidate they supported.
After last nights Godzilla-like win for Donald Trump in his home state of New York, it now appears that many questions have been answered. One of the large targets that the Cruz camp liked to use against Donald was his object of disdain by women. National polling had suggested that Mr. Trump was largely disliked by the ladies by a 67% disapproval rating. Yesterday something changed in the Empire State. Exit polling had 59% of Republican women voting for the real-estate king.
The reason the state of New York is so vital is because it is a window into the entire nation. New York has a vast socio-economic picture that pretty much gives a mirror to the rest of the nation. Upstate, Central, and portions in Western New York are actually very rural with thousands of farms. The cities of Syracuse, Buffalo, and portions of the Big Apple are industrial with large union contingents while Manhatten, Albany as well as others are urban with large government employee constituencies. In other words, New York has vast differences in its voting. New York also has military, high-income areas, then it has just the opposite with low income and government assistance voters. In the end, Donald Trump swept nearly everything!
One of the big questions raised in recent weeks was; “will the RNC Rules Committee” be so bold as to change the rules of the upcoming convention in order to further sabotage Donald Trump’s chances of winning the nomination? Reince Priebus has apparently received the message from the base because he has even come out recently and said, “we won’t be changing rule 43 or making any major changes for this convention from the previous convention”. The rules committee must undergo the same approval as the candidate. For any rules to be changed, Priebus said a majority of 2300 delegates must vote and approve that change. It now appears this is going to eliminate any possibility that the GOP can parachute in another candidate. This rule also automatically eliminates John Kasich and Marco Rubio for having any possibility of winning because neither of them won 8 states as a minimum requirement.
The interesting part of this twist is that Rubio’s 177 delegates are now freed up to go where they like as are Kasich’s. With this knowledge, you must now analyze, where did most of the delegates come from? Obviously, most of Kasich’s came from Ohio where the Governor barely won over Donald Trump (Cruz was a very distant loser in Ohio). This being the case, the likelihood is that Trump will pick up most of Kasich’s delegates.
When considering Marco Rubio’s delegates, we must take a look at Rubio himself. Rubio is now known as a moderate Republican, not the Tea Party candidate that won his Senate Seat originally. This, in fact, was the chief complaint about him that caused the conservative base to run toward Cruz in the first place. This being the case, then Rubio’s 130 (something) delegates will (like Kasich’s) gravitate toward Donald Trump as well.
Between the two folded campaigns, there are nearly 400 delegates and Donald will only need about 35-40 to go over the top and the likelihood that he needs those 35-40 at all is now even in question. Many experts (including myself) are now of the belief that Mr. Trump will go over the magic number of 1237 when the dust clears on the night of the California primary. When taking these hundreds of uncommitted delegates with the 54 left over from Pennsylvania and the Arizona delegates that Cruz has tried to steal (which are being litigated), personally speaking, I don’t see how you stop Donald Trump at this point. His lead is so substantial and there is now zero doubt that he holds the momentum.
The past two weeks have seen remarkable changes in the Trump campaign. Mr. Trump has cut his interviews back drastically and he has brought in some very wise and experienced campaign personnel such as Paul Manefort who is handling his convention and delegate issue. This is without question caused him to begin appearing more “Presidential”. What this win last night also accomplished was that Cruz was basically shut down and his chances have all but been erased. The fact is, he now holds almost no path at all at being able to achieve his delegates he needs to win.
Of course, the Cruz contingent will argue that if they can force a vote on the 2nd ballot, then Cruz begins his ascent to the magic number himself. The problem here is what I was referring too earlier. This will cost the Republican Party everything! The party will be so split, there will be no way to glue it back together in time for the election in November.
The questions that now remain are, will the unpledged delegates shift toward Trump? Will Donald Trump continue to gain momentum going into the Northeastern Seaboard States? Will Donald Trump continue to attend his POTUS classes and continue to become more Presidential? Will Ted Cruz do the noble thing to unify the party and drop out before any more damage is done?
The ride is almost over America, the roller coaster is going into the final steep downhill and my stomach is my throat. If nothing else, this has been a race for ages and it has been worth it.
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