From a pure pragmatist point of view, this primary season seems to be over. After Senator Ted Cruz questionable victory in Iowa, he ran headlong into a brick wall in New Hampshire. After his clock-cleaning in the Granite State, Cruz has fought valiantly in South Carolina but once again it seems to be all for naught. Donald Trump has a commanding lead (according to all polling) as the candidates begin their trek out West to Nevada.
When the smoke clears Saturday night, Mr. Trump will no doubt be headed out West on Trump Force One with his campaign staff celebrating all the way to the Silver State. Now the question for Cruz becomes can he secure a solid 2nd place to keep the wheels from coming off his campaign bus? That has become very questionable as Rubio has been surging dramatically in the Palmetto state. Currently, Cruz and Rubio are locked in a death match for a 2nd place in South Carolina. According to some “little birds” (who are friends of mine) in South Carolina, these guys who are on the ground claim Rubio is going to walk with 2nd.
If Rubio does walk with 2nd in South Carolina, realistically is there a pathway to victory for Ted Cruz? When one looks into Nevada, it now seems the Silver State is going to be a full-blown blow-out for Donald Trump.
This will now leave Cruz with 1 questionable (evangelical state) win, 3 consecutive losses and Rubio nipping at heals or beating him at every turn.
It now appears that for Ted Cruz, his firewall is going to be Texas and Super-Tuesday. While there is little to no current or reputable polling available for Texas, all of my Texas brethren whom I do talk with regularly, tell me that both Trump and Cruz are locked in another cage match for the win in the Lone Star State. Texas is a bit of a unique state in that, Texas is a “winner take all” and currently the land of cattle and oil wells has a jaw-dropping 155 delegates.
However, sadly for the Cruz Crew and his very passionate devotee’s, in my opinion, Texas won’t save Cruz and here is why. Ted Cruz burned himself badly in Iowa. When he had spent months campaigning on a Christian platform, then allowed his team to use fictional information in order to garner extra votes from the Ben Carson campaign, he totally undermined his credibility. As if that is not bad enough, Cruz has had to resort to “attack ads” against both Rubio and Trump. Probably the worst of these is regarding Mr. Trump’s position on abortion. Cruz took a 17-year-old video from statements that Trump made and is trying in desperation to parse it off as recent. Someone needs to tell Ted that people are not stupid and can tell the difference in Trump today and Trump 17 years ago.
The bottom line for Ted Cruz is this. Cruz is NOT going to win South Carolina, he is going to be basted in Nevada and he is now down in nearly every state that is known as Super-Tuesday. Currently, Donald Trump has a commanding lead in Florida, Alabama and believe it or not, most of those coveted Super-Tuesday states.
I said from the beginning that Ted Cruz’s base was the Tea Party and a few evangelicals. For those that doubted me, you may now apologize. As for Donald Trump, he is currently capped at 40% and that base seems to be the “angry voter and yes even some Tea Party”. For Trump to continue on, he will have to begin expanding his base. That 40% with 6 candidates is great and currently it allows Mr. Trump to claim victory. However, when he is heads up with 40%, he now becomes the loser.
America, the Trump Train is rolling full-steam ahead and running over anyone or anything that get’s in its way. Mr. Trump now needs to begin withdrawing from attacking the other candidates and begin healing the party. He needs to begin campaigning as the “presumptive nominee” and start directing his attacks at Bernie and Hillary. For Donald Trump, toying with Bernie and Hillary will be child’s play. In some strange perverse way, I sort of feel sorry for what they are about to endure. Saddle up America, this ride is about to get even more interesting.
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